Territorial differencies in existing and potential climate vulnerability of the tourism sector in Hungary

Abstract

The project “Further Development of the National Adaptation Geo-Information System” started in 2017 and was coordinated by the Hungarian Mining and Geological Survey’s National Adaptation Centre Department. Module “C3” of the project dealt directly with the climate vulnerability of the tourism sector in Hungary. The main objective of this article is to present the methodological background of the research project for the analysis and assessment of the climate vulnerability of the tourism sector and its components, i.e. sensitivity of the sector, potential impacts of climate change on tourism and adaptability of local communities and economies.

The main objective was to provide local and national actors of the sector with a useable methodology to quantitatively assess their vulnerability to climate change. The module analysed these aspects through complex indices. Beyond analysing the current situation, the project tried to model future conditions.

The narrative and cartographic results are based on the “CIVAS methodology.” It provides thematic maps in microregional resolution at the national and, in settlement resolution, at the local level. The settlement resolution was only generated for three pilot regions: the Balaton region, the Mátra-Bükk recreation area and the Pécs urban area. The calculated values concerned exposure, sensitivity, impacts, adaptability and vulnerability. The analyses focused on three time windows: the current situation, the period 2021–2050 and the period 2071–2100.

The data for micro-regional and settlement level climate exposure, sensitivity, impacts, adaptive capacity and climate vulnerability were determined using a combination of two meteorological models (EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5) and two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The latters were selected from the four Representative Concentration Pathways of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report. The parallel use of more models and scenarios (and their combinations) increases reliability and helps to produce more realistic projections.

The analytical methodology presented in the article should only be a start. Its future extension could further enhance its validity and usefulness. The existing and potential impacts of climate change on the sector and the lack of preparatory, adaptation or prevention measures underline the need for deepening and disseminating a relational knowledge base in Hungary. To this end, the results of this research can serve as the first steps.