Reasons and characteristics of the Hungarian youth’s increasing emigrational intentions

Abstract

Younger Hungarian generations consider emigration as an alternative life strategy that seizes the opportunity of studying in foreign higher educational institutions or being employed in the receiving countries’ labor markets for short, medium or long periods. During the previous decade (since the EU accession) the proportion of Hungarian emigrants radically increased which directed the attention of international and national scientific bodies and policymakers towards the phenomenon. Recent studies shed light on the most significant mobility characteristics of the last 10 years and put special emphasis on the youth (age 18–40) as the most affected age group. The migration process, its influencing social, economic, political, cultural mechanisms, and the explanatory factors are in the limelight of many inter- and multidisciplinary research. The demand is increasing on objective and subjective data in terms of migration potential and emigration trends. This particular need led to a 4-year-long project entitled “Recent trends of Hungarian emigration” realized between 2013 and 2016, focusing on Hungarians living in Hungary, but aiming to emigrate, as well as Hungarians already settled abroad. Almost 10 000 respondents were surveyed in Hungary, 245 people in the diaspora, and semi-structured interviews were prepared both in Hungary and abroad. Targeted questions aimed at getting to know the specificities (duration, determination, target country, etc.) of their migration potential, the reasons behind the definite decisions, the recent status quo and the changes of their demographic features in detail. This paper concentrates on the younger generations which represented 49% of the total number of respondents.

After the political regime change, the pace of migration was not as fast as it is nowadays. According to numerous official Hungarian and foreign statistical data sources, 300–650 000 Hungarians are living or studying abroad primarily in Western and Northern European highly developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Switzerland and the Benelux states. The average age of migrants is 29-30, although, year by year, younger generations tend to leave Hungary for shorter or longer periods. In 2016 no distinction could be made between the number of migrant men and women in this respect. Based on our empirical results, we proved a “sinister” phenomenon: the strength of migration potential and the length of foreign stay correlate. People have weak migration intentions, aim to stay abroad only for a short or intermediate period, although the seriousness of their decisions is fragile. Hungarian youngsters, on the other hand, with severe decisions on emigration, aim to leave the country for longer periods or even forever which is appalling in prospect and claims urgent policy interventions.

Migration potential is selective: the most affected social groups are those for which opportunities (youngsters, having massive and diverse human capital, adventure-seekers) and constraints (dissatisfied, pessimistic, discriminated social strata) strengthen each other. Crucial push factors are low macroeconomic performance, individual financial problems, depth crisis, loan re-payment impossibility, lack of adequate jobs, disillusionment from politics, uncertainty in future and social conflicts. On the contrary, the developed economic structure, the variety of workplaces and higher educational institutions, inclusive society, the quality of nature, mentality of people turned to pull factors.

Sharp migration potential inequalities emerged between Budapest (having the highest ratio of youngsters intending to leave or have already left) and the rural countryside. In addition, residents most eager to migrate live in post-industrial socialist cities, areas gone through unsuccessful economic transition, underdeveloped rural neighborhoods near the Eastern and Southern borders and in counties characterized by high proportion of Roma people. Less affected areas are the Western borderland (nota bene, the daily commuting of around 30-40 000 people to Austria and Slovakia “substituting” emigration) and the developed rural countryside where many people are employed by the agricultural sector.

One of the most urgent challenges of Hungary burdened with a great multitude of structural difficulties (aging, lower fertility rate, educational attainment lagging behind the EU, labor market imbalance, spatial-social polarization, etc.) is to halt/decelerate emigration. Policymakers must make profound and effective interventions in order to improve life perspectives and diminish uncertainty about the future, in particular for the most vulnerable lower andmiddle strata Hungarian youngsters.